Dalio-style believability-weighted decision
OfficialOfficial · updated Nov 4, 2026 · v1.0.1
Weighs a team's views on one decision by each person's track record and reasoning on that question, compares it with the majority, and writes the criteria down as a reusable principle.
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When to use it
- A team is split on a decision, or a senior voice decides by default
- The same kind of decision keeps being argued from scratch
What you give it
- The decision and who is responsible
- Each person's view, reasoning and confidence
- Track record on this type of decision
- Any existing principle for this type
What you get
A views table with believability on this question, plain and weighted counts, the responsible person's call with reasons, a principle for next time, and a short team note.
Changelog
- v1.0.1 · Nov 4, 2026 · Example output now opens with the attribution and not-affiliated lines, as the skill's own checks require.
- v1.0.0 · Nov 4, 2026 · First release.
Sources
- Use principles. - principles.com (2026-11-04)
- Be clear on whether you are arguing or seeking to understand (believability defined) - principles.com (2026-11-04)
- Remember that believable opinions are most likely to come from people who... - principles.com (2026-11-04)
- Use believability weighting as a tool rather than a substitute for decision making by Responsible Parties - principles.com (2026-11-04)
- Be radically transparent. - principles.com (2026-11-04)
- How to build a company where the best ideas win, TED2017 transcript (2026-11-04)
Related skills
- Decision memo Writes a short narrative decision memo: recommendation first, context, options with trade-offs, risks, and the ask with a decider and deadline.
- Decision record (decision log entry) Records a decision as a short log entry: the decision, context, options considered, why, who decided, the date, status, and a revisit trigger.
- Team retrospective Runs a team retro from notes or a survey: themes, root causes with 5 whys, and 1 to 3 experiments with an owner and review date.
- 1:1 prep for managers Prepares a manager's 1:1: the report's agenda first, last time's commitments, one win, one SBI feedback, a growth question, and blockers.
- Team charter Drafts a team charter: mission, customers, what the team owns and doesn't, roles, working agreements, rituals, decisions, and metrics.